Veteran political consultant Don Rose cautions against reading too much into polls, especially this early in the presidential contest.
By: Don Rose | July 24, 2008 | 08:45 AM (PDT) | [commentBubble.jpg] Comments
who's behind, who's gaining, who's slipping — and why.

In a year in which Senate Republicans have had little good news to celebrate, two new polls out of battleground states today show the party in good position to keep two GOP-held Senate seats. Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman is running far ahead of his politically troubled challenger, while in Colorado an open seat many believe was a shoo-in for Democrats is tied.
The Quinnipiac University polls, conducted for the Wall Street Journal and WashingtonPost.com, surveyed 1,425 likely voters in Colorado for a margin of error of +/- 2.6% and 1,261 likely voters in Minnesota for a margin of error of +/- 2.8%. Both polls were conducted between 7/14-22. In Colorado, Democratic Rep.

MADISON, Wis. (AP) - Democrat Barack Obama continues to have a double-digit lead over Republican John McCain in Wisconsin, an independent poll released Thursday showed.
Obama has an 11-point lead over McCain in the Quinnipiac University poll, down from 13-points in a June poll. The two-point drop this month was within the poll's three-point margin of error and statistically insignificant.
s post-primary bubble hasn't burst, but it is leaking a bit," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

(CNN) — Barack Obama holds a 4-point lead over John McCain in the latest CNN poll of polls. The new average of the three most recent national surveys of

Chris Cillizza takes a look at the polling and sees an improbable John McCain summer run at Barack Obama. With almost all eyes focused on Obama’s campaigning in Europe, McCain has moved within the margin of error in three key states, two of which went to the Democrats in 2004. The results show that Obama may be far weaker than anyone imagined:
Republican John McCain has quickly closed the gap between himself and Democratic rival Sen. Barack Obama in several key battleground states even as the Arizona senator struggles to break through the wall-to-wall coverage of Obama’s trip to Europe and the Middle East this week.
John Kerry enjoyed in 2004, a fifteen-point swing has

By BRIAN BAKST , AP By candidate: By donor: ST. PAUL - The presidential race tightened considerably in Minnesota over the last month, with Republican John McCain erasing a once-commanding lead by Democrat Barack Obama in Minnesota according to an independent poll released Thursday. Republican Norm Coleman remained far ahead of DFLer Al Franken in the Senate race.
The poll of likely Minnesota voters conducted by Quinnipiac University has Obama up 46 to 44. It's within the survey's margin of sampling error, meaning the race is considered about even. Last month, the same pollsters put Obama 17-percentage points ahead of McCain.
concern — polling far above health care costs, food prices, home values and retirement accounts.

By TODD SPANGLER • FREE PRESS STAFF WRITER • July 24, 2008 WASHINGTON – A closer look at Quinnipiac University’s presidential preference poll in Michigan

By Bill Scanlon, Rocky Mountain News - John McCain has edged ahead of Barack Obama in Colorado and now leads the Democratic presidential contender by 2 points, a poll released today says.
The Quinnipiac University polls shows McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, the top choice among 46 percent of likely Colorado voters. Obama is the top choice among 44 percent of likely voters.
tical to each man's strategy," Brown added.

By KATHY BARKS HOFFMAN AP LANSING, Mich. (AP) - Republican John McCain has narrowed the gap between himself and Democrat Barack Obama in Michigan, according to a poll released Thursday.
Forty-six percent of those polled say they'd back Obama if the election were held now, while 42 percent would support McCain. A month ago, Obama held a slight 48-percent-to-42-percent lead over McCain in a Quinnipiac poll.

by FOXNews.com A new poll shows John McCain made gains on Barack Obama in four key November battleground states — Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and

The new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows why Sen. John McCain still has a chance in a year when everything is going Barack Obama's way.
Plug today's generic political factors into any of the many forecasting models pitting Candidate A against Candidate B, and the Democrat wins in a landslide. The end of a two-term presidency with the incumbent's approval at Watergate levels; widespread economic anxiety among the middle class, not just in general but in two panic-button areas (a real estate plunge and rising pricers for gas and food); and an unpopular war. It feels like 1979 and Jimmy Carter.
why McCain remains so close in the polls. One explanation: mid-summer presidential

By Craig Gilbert Another Wisconsin poll shows Democrat Barack Obama with a double-digit lead over Republican John McCain in the state, though the polling

These surveys of likely voters in Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan were conducted by Quinnipiac University in partnership with washingtonpost.com and The Wall Street Journal as part of a four-month effort to measure voter sentiment in key battleground states. The four states surveyed in this project provide a snapshot of where things stand less than five months before Election Day and will be followed by regular polling and analysis in the months ahead. Previous survey results »
July 24, 2008: Full Results and Methodology
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Via the Wall Street Journal, a Quinnipiac University poll puts Barack Obama up just two percentage points over John McCain, 46-44. The relatively large survey — 1,261 likely voters — has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
The Journal says Obama had a seven-point lead in June; but MPR's Tom Scheck notes that lead was actually 17 points. Quinnipiac's site concurs. The new survey was taken July 14-22.
innesota results come a day after a Rasmussen Reports survey put Obama up 12 percentage points here. — David Brauer

By TODD SPANGLER • FREE PRESS WASHINGTON STAFF • July 24, 2008 WASHINGTON – A new poll shows John McCain closing the gap against Barack Obama in at least

PRINCETON, NJ, July 24 (UPI) - Likely Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois gained support in blue, red, and purple -- or swing -- states, a Gallup Poll indicates.
Before Obama secured enough delegates in June to win the Democratic nomination, he and his likely Republican challenger, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, each averaged about 45 percent in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking, pollsters said Wednesday. Since then, Obama picked up an average of 3 percentage points -- 46 percent to 43 percent -- in states seen as traditionally Democratic or Republican and swing states.
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By Bill Pugliano, Getty Images LANSING, Mich. (AP) — A new poll of likely Michigan voters shows Republican John McCain has narrowed the gap between himself

By SARA MURRAY The presidential race is tightening in four key battleground states, where John McCain holds a bigger advantage with white male voters and

Sixty percent of GLBT adults would vote for Barack Obama for President if the election was held today, compared to 14 percent of GLBT adults who would vote for John McCain, according to a poll released on Monday, July 21 by Harris Interactive.
Additionally, three percent of GLBT adults favor Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate, and 1 percent of GLBT adults would vote for Ralph Nader.
int lead (38 percent to 26 percent), but one-quarter of Independents (25 percent) are not sure, 4 percent would vote for Bob Barr and 3 percent for Ralph Nader.